Tourism and employment: how the severity of future coronavirus waves could impact jobs
Wednesday, 26 August 2020
health
tourism
presentations
If new coronavirus cases continue to rise and Europe experiences a severe second wave of infections, the number of people travelling to tourism destinations could fall by up to 68% in 2020, a new JRC report finds. Less severe scenarios could still see a drop of around 38% to 52%. Currently, there around 19 million people either directly employed in the tourism sector, or with related jobs on the tourism 'value chain' – from restaurant workers to shop owners and their suppliers. Depending on the severity of the drop in travel, between 6.6 and 11.7 million of these jobs could be impacted through reductions in working hours or permanent job losses. With the coronavirus crisis affecting people's willingness and ability to travel and their destination preferences, JRC experts analysed survey responses and economic data to identify three potential scenarios and estimate the subsequent impact on employment across the EU. A severe second wave would be the worst-case scenario, with border closures and very low levels of domestic travel putting huge pressure on jobs and businesses. Less severe scenarios, with borders remaining open and people (albeit in lesser numbers) deciding to travel to holiday destinations, would be less detrimental to the economies of those areas reliant on tourism. Croatia, Cyprus, Malta, Greece, Slovenia, Spain and Austria are the countries with the highest share of jobs at risk, based on:
- the contribution of tourism to their national employment;
- their dependence on international tourists;
- the share of temporary employees in related sectors.